Programme 02 · Data & Evidence

Building the evidence base for Indigenous reform

Without robust data on San population, land use, livelihoods and service access, policy reform has no empirical grounding — and bilateral funders have nothing to fund against. The data programme is the foundation on which every other workstream rests.

18,000 – 120,000current range of San population estimates
48 monthsworkplan, 2026 – 2029
National auditof land tenure across all 73 RADP settlements
The evidence gap

A seven-fold uncertainty

Estimates of Botswana's San population vary by a factor of almost seven. This range reflects not uncertainty, but the near-complete absence of systematic data collection — on population, on language, on land rights, on services.

San population estimates — range across sources
2022 Census (language microdata)18,000
18k
Published research estimates48,000 – 70,000
48 – 70k
Demographic modelling90,000 – 120,000
90 – 120k

Existing data is fragmented across Government ministries, Statistics Botswana, academic institutions and NGOs; it has never been integrated into a coherent analytical framework; and much of it is so outdated as to be misleading. No bilateral or multilateral funder will commit significant resources to a programme whose target population cannot be defined more precisely than a seven-fold range.

Approach

A three-phase workplan, 2026 – 2029

Phase 1 · 2026

Audit, indicative census & gap analysis

  • Full audit of extant ministerial and public datasets, identifying what is known, where the critical gaps lie, and what confidence can be placed in existing figures
  • Indicative San census with Statistics Botswana — an updated, credible baseline disaggregated by geography, language group and livelihood type
  • National land tenure audit — the foundational deliverable of the entire programme (see below)
  • Costed Terms of Reference for new research to fill critical gaps, forming the basis for proposals to the Tenure Facility, ILO, UNICEF, IFAD and bilateral research funders
Phase 2 · 2027 – 2028

Targeted data collection & policy briefs

  • Population demographics and language; land, livelihoods and economic inclusion; education, health and social protection indicators
  • Baseline measures for governance and participation processes being established in parallel
  • Costed policy briefs and programme proposals — grounded in real data — that bilateral and multilateral funders require before committing implementation finance
Phase 3 · 2028 – 2029

Monitoring framework & ongoing policy support

  • M&E framework for Government, San organisations and funders to track whether reform commitments are being met
  • Research briefs and costed intervention frameworks feeding into implementation finance proposals
  • Permanent data and evidence capacity — held jointly by Statistics Botswana, relevant ministries, and Khwedom Council
Keystone deliverable

The national land tenure audit

Land is not simply the primary grievance of San communities — it is the foundational issue from which all others flow. The loss of land and natural resources is the single most important driver of long-term marginalisation: it stripped communities of their only substantive capital assets, and it is the structural condition that limits every other development or welfare intervention.

The audit will document, for every settlement and relevant area: the formal statutory position (land board allocations, tribal land grants, existing instruments); customary and traditional use patterns recognised within communities; and — critically — the discrepancies between them. Land occupied or historically used by San that has been allocated to outsiders, registered fraudulently, lost through wildlife designations, or rendered inaccessible through CKGR game reserve status will all be mapped.

"The land audit is not merely a technical research exercise — it is a legal prerequisite for ILO 169 compliance. No credible legal instrument for land restitution can be drafted without it; no bilateral or multilateral funder with a land rights mandate will commit significant resources without it."

Outputs: community-level tenure profiles, a national synthesis report, a classification framework for tenure reform, and mapped spatial datasets suitable for legal proceedings, policy development and funder proposals.

Why it matters

Unlocking every other workstream

Policy reform

The National Indigenous Peoples Policy, RADP replacement framework and ILO 169 implementation legislation all require empirical grounding. The audit provides it.

CKGR restoration

Tenure mapping, ecological baselines and settlement profiles form the factual basis for the Heads of Agreement and the management plan.

Bilateral & multilateral finance

No serious funder will commit to a programme whose target population varies by a factor of seven. Credible data is the gate.

Accountability

A permanent monitoring framework allows San organisations, Government and funders to track whether reform commitments are actually being met.

Indicative budget

USD 355,000 – 920,000 over four years

The budget scales with the ambition of new surveys commissioned. The programme is designed to attract dedicated research and data funding from the Tenure Facility, bilateral agencies and UN bodies. Without it, every other workstream operates in a factual vacuum.